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########## ########## ########## |
########## ########## ########## | MEGATRENDS OR MEGAMISTAKES?
#### #### #### | What Ever Happened to
######## ######## ######## | the Information Society
######## ######## ######## | (Part 1)
#### #### #### |
########## #### #### |EFF EXPLAINS ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES
########## #### #### |
=====================================================================
EFFector Online December 17, 1992 Issue 4.01
A Publication of the Electronic Frontier Foundation
ISSN 1062-9424
=====================================================================
MEGATRENDS OR MEGAMISTAKES?
What Ever Happened to the Information Society?
(Part 1 of 2 Parts)
by Tom Forester, Senior Lecturer,
School of Computing & Information Technology,
Griffith University, Queensland, Australia
What ever happened to the Information Society? Where is the
Information Age? What, indeed, happened to the "workerless" factory,
the "paperless" office and the "cashless" society? Why aren't we all
living in the "electronic cottage," playing our part in the push-
button "teledemocracy" - or simply relaxing in the "leisure society,"
while machines exhibiting "artificial intelligence" do all the work?
Remember when the microchip first appeared on the scene in the late
1970s and we were told that social transformation was inevitable?
Remember the Siemens report, which allegedly predicted that 40 per
cent of office jobs would soon be sacrificed to the "job destroyer"?
And the plan by one Dutch political party for a new tax on
automation? Remember, indeed, the US Senate committee report which
earnestly discussed the social implications of a 22 hour work week by
1985 and retirement at age 38?
Recall, too, how we have been regularly assaulted with trendy buzz-
words and ugly acronyms by market researchers and computer vendors
over recent years, promising us that the videodisc, the video
telephone, electronic mail, teleconferencing, videotex, desktop
publishing, multimedia, ISDN, EDI, OSI, MIS, EIS, EFT-POS, RISC,
CASE, MAP, JIT, CIM, CD-ROM, DAT and HDTV would be the next "hot"
product and/or the wave of the future and/or actually deliver the
long-awaited productivity pay-off from the huge expenditure on
information technology (IT)?
The truth is that society has not changed very much. The microchip
has had much less social impact than almost everyone predicted. All
the talk about "future shocks", "third waves", "megatrends" and
"post-industrial" societies must now be taken with a large pinch of
salt. Life goes on for the vast majority of people in much the same
old way. Computers have infiltrated many areas of our social life,
but they have not transformed it. Computers have proved to be useful
tools - no more, no less. None of the more extreme predictions about
the impact of computers on society have turned out to be correct.
Neither Utopia nor Dystopia has arrived on Earth as a result of
computerization.
In this address, I will first compare some of the intended
consequences of the IT revolution predicted by the pundits with what
has actually happened in important areas of society - especially in
the workplace and at home. After this review, I will look at some
tentative explanations of why so many technology forecasters seem to
have got things hopelessly wrong. I will then review some of the
unintended consequences of the IT revolution, which weren't predicted
by the pundits. These include: the new social problems of unreliable
software, computer crime, software theft, hacking, the creation of
viruses and the invasion of privacy; and some psychological problems
associated with computer-based communication technologies - who could
have foreseen, for instance, that today we would be discussing why
some executives have become "communicaholic" mobile phone users,
"spreadsheet junkies", "electronic mail addicts" and "fax potatoes"?
I will conclude with some brief comments about the relationship
between humans and technology, arguing that we need to reassert the
primacy of human values.
INTENDED CONSEQUENCES
THE WORKPLACE IN THE "LEISURE" SOCIETY
Since so many of the early predictions about the social impact of IT
envisaged dramatic reductions in the quantity of paid employment
and/or large increases in the amount of forced or unforced leisure
time available to the average person, work and leisure would seem an
appropriate starting point for an assessment of the actual social
impact of IT.
First, the microchip has not put millions of people out of work
- although it is steadily eroding employment opportunities. Mass
unemployment has not occurred as a result of computerization chiefly
because the introduction of computers into the workplace has been
much slower and messier than expected - for a variety of financial,
technical and managerial reasons. In some companies, computerization
has actually been accompanied by increased levels of employment.
Unemployment may be regarded as unacceptably high in many OECD
countries, but economic recession and declining competitiveness are
mostly to blame. However, many manufacturers now have an active
policy of 'de-manning': when and if economic growth does return to
its former levels, labour will not be taken on pro rata and increased
investment in IT may actually reduce the number of jobs available.
There is also concern about the service sector's continuing ability
to create jobs and a growing realisation that the high-tech sector
itself will remain small relative to total employment.
Second, the vast majority who are in the workforce appear to be
working harder than ever. There is very little sign of the "leisure"
society having arrived yet! According to one survey, the amount of
leisure time enjoyed by the average US citizen shrunk by a staggering
37 per cent between 1973 and 1989. Over the same period, the average
working week, including travel-to-work time, grew from under 41 hours
to nearly 47 hours - a far cry from the 22 hours someone predicted in
1967! (Gibbs 1989). Note that these increases occurred just as
computers, robots, word processors and other "labour-saving" gadgetry
were entering the workplace. Moreover, the proportion of Americans
holding down a second job or doing more work at home has been
increasing, due to inflation and other pressures on the domestic
standard of living. Much the same sort of thing appears to be
happening in European countries like Germany, where weekend working
has been resumed in some industries, and in Australia, where 24-hour
working has been re-introduced, for example, in the coal industry.
The Japanese, of course, continue to work longer hours than almost
everybody else and rarely take more than very short holidays.
We are still awaiting the "workerless", "unmanned" or "fully-
automated" factory. The "factory of the future" remains where it has
always been - somewhere in the future. Take industrial robots, for
example: analysts confidently predicted that the US robot population
would top 250,000 or more by 1990. The actual figure was 37,000 - and
some of these had already been relegated to training centres and
scrap metal dealers (Kilborn 1990). Worldwide robot sales actually
peaked in 1987 and have been going downhill ever since, primarily
because users have found that the care and feeding of robots is more
costly than that of people. General Motors wasted millions on
premature robotization and robot makers have gone bust all over the
place - victims of their own exaggerated claims. Even CNC (computer
numerically controlled) machine tools, which have been around for
some time, are not as widely used as might be expected: one study
found that only 11 per cent of machine tools in the US metalworking
industry were CNC; 53